The 2015 USAU Nationals pools/schedule have been set, and now we have just over a week to mold our predictions. Two of the three teams from the Northwest Region have found themselves in the same pool [#3 Seattle Riot, #10 Portland Schwa], and the other, #5 Vancouver Traffic, in what could be the most shallow pool in the tournament.
Seattle Riot
The reigning World Champions hold their #3 spot in the nation after winning their fourth straight Northwest Regional Title, and after #2 San Francisco Fury and #1 Boston Brute Squad also won their regions.
Seattle Riot has played each pool opponent at least once this past season:
- 12-5 WIN vs Washington D.C. Scandal
- 13-7 WIN vs Portland Schwa
- 14-9 WIN vs Portland Schwa
- 15-9 WIN vs Portland Schwa
- 12-9 WIN vs North Carolina Phoenix
- Overall: 5-0
- Average win margin: 5.4 points
Two-time defending National Champions Scandal are the obvious pick to steal the pool away from Riot, but D.C. has taken a noticeable step back from their dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns. It looks like this pool should go Seattle’s way, barring a major set-back or a particularly inspired performance from their opponents.
Bracket possibilities: there are no bye’s earned for the top seeds, so Riot will have to play and win four games to win the title. With no upsets, their schedule would be the following:
- Pre-Quarters vs Austin Showdown
- Quarters vs Vancouver Traffic
- Semifinals vs San Francisco Fury
- Finals vs Boston Brute Squad
The first three match-ups are highly likely, as Traffic and Fury will be heavy favorites to advance in the bracket to meet Riot. Riot has a favorable match-up in the first two rounds, but will then have to run through Fury and Brute Squad, the only two teams that have bested Riot this season. Seattle was 2-2 against San Francisco this season, and 0-2 against Boston.
Vancouver Traffic
For the second year in a row, Traffic enters Nationals as the #5 seed, which means they have the best chance [on paper] to challenge a team for the first place position in pool play. This year, that team is Denver’s Molly Brown, who have made several key additions to their roster that have made them semi-finals favorites since the season began. Vancouver and Denver have not played each other this year, so the first match-up will be an important one, with the winner likely taking first in the pool and finding the easier schedule at the start of bracket play.
Traffic met Québec’s Iris in the Canadian Ultimate Championship finals, winning by a slim 15-13 margin. See the full scorecard for the game here.
Traffic also hasn’t played Chicago’s Nemesis. Nemesis is the lowest seed of the tournament, and the only team not ranked in the top 16 teams to end the season [earned a bid to Nationals after the Great Lakes region automatically received a bid].
Bracket possibilities: assuming no upsets, Traffic would take second in the pool, and go on to face Madison’s Heist in pre-quarters. Traffic won the only game between the two teams 15-11, but Heist has been building towards Nationals, not losing a game in their last two tournaments [Chicago Heavyweights, North Central Women’s Regionals]. This could be a sneaky choice for an upset.
If Traffic advances, they would run into Riot, who they have played really close games with this season, but have yet to beat them. If they win, they would likely advance to the same schedule Riot would have faced above. If not, they would enter the 5th place bracket with a chance to hold seed for the tournament, and secure Pro-Flight status.
Portland Schwa
Schwa finds themselves three places higher than their end-of-season rankings [#13 -> #10], and a three seed in their pool. Portland found little success against first seed Riot, and lost their only game of the season to second seed Scandal 8 – 13. Finally, against fourth seed Phoenix, Schwa split two games, winning 13 – 10 at the U.S. Open, and losing 10 – 11 at the Colorado Cup.
With a point differential of just +2, it’s hard to call Schwa a favorite against Phoenix. In trying to find other comparisons in their schedules/results, we find:
- Losses to non-Nationals qualifying teams — Schwa: 1; Phoenix: 1
- Wins against higher ranked teams at Nationals — Schwa: 1; Phoenix: 5
- Average point differential against top 4 teams — Schwa: -5.8 [5 games] ; Phoenix: -7.0 [4 games]
Honestly, there is barely anything separating these two teams on paper. Schwa might be ranked a little higher than they should be, Phoenix a little lower. This should be a very tight game, and Schwa will need to win it to take third in the pool and have a chance to move-on to the quarterfinals, which the team hasn’t done since 2004.
Bracket possibilities: assuming no upsets, Schwa would move on to face Atlanta Ozone, who bested them 14-10 in their only match-up this season. If Schwa could sneak out a win, they would run into Boston’s Brute Squad, and likely get knocked into the 5th place bracket.
If they can’t advance past quarterfinals, Schwa would still be eligible for Pro-Flight status through the 7th-place/play-in bracket. One loss in that bracket pushes them down to the 11th place bracket, and so-on. By qualifying for Nationals, Schwa is guaranteed Elite-Flight status, which they also achieved last year, meaning they would compete in the Triple-Crown Tour in 2016.
The Northwest Women’s teams look to has a Championship contender in Seattle Riot, a semi-final contender in Vancouver Traffic, and a third Pro-Flight contender in Portland Schwa. This is the only Region with two teams in the top 5, and three teams in the top 10. Regardless of the finish, these teams have proven that the Northwest is likely the best women’s region in the nation.
Edits: Schwa has made quarterfinals, most recently in 2004; Traffic and Iris have played once, in the CUC finals.
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