A Most Important Part of my Ultimate Life [so far]; part 2

Coyee’s Conundrum

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It’s a wonderful feeling to have people look up to you, especially in an activity that you love and spend a lot of effort working in. In my second and final season of college ultimate, I felt I had a certain amount of prestige; I was super tall, I knew a ton about the sport on a national/international level, and Jonathan “Goose” Helton knew me by name [!!!]. I wasn’t a coach or captain of the team, but many looked to me for advice on drills, skills, and thrills. I really enjoyed my place on the team as an elder [nick-named “Old-Man River” for being ~7 months older than anyone else on the team (on second thought, I wasn’t even the oldest; not by multiple years {thanks, teammates})].

But no position felt better than that of an ultimate father.

(No, I don’t actually have a child.)

Statistics: USA vs Philippines – Manilla Spirits All-Star Series

Introduction/Disclaimer

Let me get this out of the way: these stats are very much subject to human error. The strain/time it takes to type in all of these stats throughout the course of a 30-point game is a bit much to try and do twice, so these numbers were taken with one viewing, save several rewinds and double-takes.

Most importantly, there were at least 3 points that had video skips and lag, which resulted in mostly missed defensive statistics, but also some on offense.

Additionally, on this free WordPress blog, I don’t have access to Table plug-ins, so the information can’t be displayed at an interactive level. I will leave a download link to the spreadsheet of stats, however, so people can look at things on their own and create tables, create new stats with the provided numbers, and so on.

Lastly, this is going to be a very fluid piece: fixes will be made, charts updated, and insights added. Other people will provide different opinions/information that can and will be included.

The Raw Numbers

Link to Original Spreadsheet

While the stats provided are interesting on an individual basis, most people will likely be interested in comparing genders as the quest for high-level, professional mixed Ultimate is explored and implored, so that is how I will present most of the information: in gender comparisons.

Offense

Additional Stats [Women | Men]

% of Touches: 44.44%  |  55.55%

Yards per Completed Pass: 7.62  |  9.27

Yards on Missed Throws: 101  |  415

Yards per Missed Pass: 33.67  |  37.23

Assist per Throw %: 07.79%  |  12.64%

Goals per Catch%: 04.48%  |  17.72%

Defense

Additional Stats [Women | Men]

Goals-per-Touch Against: 0.128  |  0.048

Analysis

Let me preface this first by saying I am no stats expert, and there are so many different things to compare in here that I wouldn’t understand. That said, there are some easy-to-understand comparisons and conclusions to be seen.

Women played less than the men, more offense than defense

Reasoning: discrepancy in points played, points played vs O/D possessions. There are several factors that play into these numeric relationships:

• The women turned the disc over fewer times, resulting in playing less defense. More women on the line = lower probability of a turnover.
• The U.S. frequently used 4 women on offense.
• The U.S. had to match the Philippines gender ratios on defense.

Men touched the disc/were thrown to more than women.

Reasoning: Despite almost equal possessions on offense, men had more touches/catches.

Men picked up the disc/caught the pull more.

Reasoning: difference in disparity in touches [Men +20] and catches [Men +12].

Women were more efficient throwers.

Reasoning: women had much higher completion percent [97.32% vs 80.64%].

Men threw farther than women on average.

Reasoning: Men had higher stats in all yards-per-throw and yards-per-attempt categories.

Throws to women were slightly less efficient/effective.

Reasoning: women had a lower catch-per-target rate [85.90% vs 96.34%], and women gained less yards per catch [10.07 vs 10.60].

Men scored more.

Reasoning: Men lead in every scoring stat:

• Goals
• Goals per Catch [percentage of catches that resulted in goals]
• Assists
• Assists per Throw[percentage of throws that resulted in goals]

Without tracking end-zone targets, it’s difficult to truly compare scoring efficiency, since men had more targets overall [though not many].

Additionally, the higher rate of missed throws could have occurred in the end-zone

Defense was comparable.

Defense is a weird thing to track with statistics in Ultimate. I could definitely use some suggestions/insight on how to paint a better picture on that end.

Stats to Record in the Future

• Men/Women targeting men/women
• Men/Women throwaways while targeting men/women
• Dumps vs Gainers
• Yards per Pass Completion
• Endzone targets
• Number of passes thrown at player on defense
• Yards missed [Attempted yards – completed yards]

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Individual Leaders

• Touches: Jonathan Nethercutt – 27
• Completion %: Alika Johnston – 100% [17/17]
• Passes Thrown: Jonathan Nethercutt – 27
• Passes Completed: Jonathan Nethercutt – 23
• Passing Yards Completed: Jonathan Nethercutt – 222
• Yards per Pass Attempt: Jimmy Mickle – 18.55 [Perston had higher rate, but only threw 2 passes]
• Most Throwing Yards Missed [Attempted – Completed]: Beau Kittredge – 110
• Catches: Jonathan Nethercutt – 17
• Targets: Jonathan Nethercutt – 17
• Receiving Yards: Jesse Shofner – 179
• Yards per Catch: Claire Desmond – 27.83

Touches

Completion %

Passing Yards

Assists / Throwaways

Receiving

Defense

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Please let me know if anything is glaringly wrong, or if you have anything interesting/important to add.

Cheers,

Bobby

Outside the Huddle: Issue No. 3 – Defending a Hucker

Here’s the situation we presented to the panel:

You are in an elimination game against a team you have played several times this year. They have a very skilled deep thrower that typically plays as a handler, rarely going downfield. This player has hurt your team in the past by throwing long goals, regardless of the type of mark you use. Your scouting report coming in is simple: push this player deep and keep them away from the disc.

At halftime, this player has unusually already gone deep, successfully, 3 times. Once was on a called pull play. They have hucked for another goal, though not on a pull play. You are behind 8-6. What do you do in the second half? Should you continue to push this player away from the disc? What kind of defender, given your normal options (you can’t just put World’s Greatest Defender on them) should be used?

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While a seemingly broad question, Issue 3 really boils down to a few key ideas. Ben van Heuvelen starts his response, and this entry, with a few of them: “On defense, your goal isn’t to shut down all options , because that’s impossible against a good offense. Rather, your goal is to dictate to the offense those options it can take. So, the first thing to realize here is: if Big Thrower hasn’t been able to make big throws, you’ve done something successful.”

Having a gameplan, especially one developed over the course of a season/career, is something players/coaches should trust. A frequent effort of gameplans in this sport are figuring out what certain teams/players want to do, and trying to take that away.

“Whenever lining up against a gifted opponent I have always found it helpful to ask myself: what does this player want to do? In this case, this player is most comfortable and probably most confident in a handler role, staying behind the disc and throwing goals rather than receiving them. When playing against teams that have a player like this, someone who excels in many aspects, always make them beat you with their Plan B or Plan C, never Plan A.”

“You take away a team’s strength and make them beat you with their weakness. If they do, you make them do it again, because it’s their f***ing weakness!” — Jon Gewirtz

This idea is nearly universal in the sport, and in all sports. Where trouble arises is when teams find ways to beat you with their second/third plans, like in the proposed scenario. Now comes the hardest question at all: do you make a change, or keep playing it out?

In my opinion, it doesn’t matter what adjustment you make as long as you make one. -Ryan Morgan

It’s important to note that most panelists make the distinction that change means tweaking matchups and individual strategies, not entire gameplans. Using different or alternating defenders against ‘Big Thrower’, changing what defenders do on the mark, and similar changes are the kinds of responses proposed, but most would still try and hold true to the main goal: don’t let ‘Big Thrower’ play his usual role as deep-throwing handler. “But again, the most important adjustment to make is to make an adjustment” -Ryan Morgan.

As a wise woman once said, never lose a game without playing zone. I think this thought answers the question but taken to a broader sense: never get beat over and over again without changing something. -Miranda Roth

There are team-wide changes that can be made as well, such as throwing different kinds of zones: standard zones; the “box-and-one”, which puts 6 players into zone positions while one would mark ‘Big Thrower’ regularly; and others.

You can also adjust your methods of denying this player the disc by changing pressures against his teammates: “It’s important to keep in mind that he’s not a handler by himself. That is, he’s has someone to complete the chemistry and that guy may be the one to really clamp down on.” writes Tully Beaty. Dan Heijman agrees: “What we need to do is ratchet up the intensity on their throwers. Make it so they don’t want the disc in their hands.”

There are tons of different small adjustments that could be made, and in an elimination game, you might need to use any and all that you can think of.

“Or…” says Chris Talarico, “if you don’t like these options, you can go back to shutting down the deep and allow him the underneath…and kick yourself after you lose for allowing the same guy to beat you the same way. Again.”

I think the most important thought process comes from Ben Wiggins, as usual:

“My gut usually sticks with the scouting report; I have a lot of faith in how I scout teams, and if I was sure 50 minutes ago that this guy is a better thrower than cutter, well, 50 minutes and some lost sweat shouldn’t change that. In fact, nothing in the first half has contradicted our report…heck, if we had been pushing him towards the disc, maybe we are already down 8-5 or 8-4. This might just be his day.”

I couldn’t agree more that long-developed strategies shouldn’t be abandoned at the first sign of adversity. Stick to your guns, trust your gameplan, and most importantly, trust your teammates.

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Super excited to start reading The-Huddle for the x-th time, and hopefully encouraging others to do the same. I’m not sure that any other source has been this valuable.

Cheers!

2015 Nationals Pools Preview: The Northwest Women

The 2015 USAU Nationals pools/schedule have been set, and now we have just over a week to mold our predictions. Two of the three teams from the Northwest Region have found themselves in the same pool [#3 Seattle Riot, #10 Portland Schwa], and the other, #5 Vancouver Traffic, in what could be the most shallow pool in the tournament.

Schedule/Seeding

Seattle Riot

The reigning World Champions hold their #3 spot in the nation after winning their fourth straight Northwest Regional Title, and after #2 San Francisco Fury and #1 Boston Brute Squad also won their regions.

Seattle Riot has played each pool opponent at least once this past season:

• 12-5 WIN vs Washington D.C. Scandal
• 13-7 WIN vs Portland Schwa
• 14-9 WIN vs Portland Schwa
• 15-9 WIN vs Portland Schwa
• 12-9 WIN vs North Carolina Phoenix
• Overall: 5-0
• Average win margin: 5.4 points

Two-time defending National Champions Scandal are the obvious pick to steal the pool away from Riot, but D.C. has taken a noticeable step back from their dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns. It looks like this pool should go Seattle’s way, barring a major set-back or a particularly inspired performance from their opponents.

Bracket possibilities: there are no bye’s earned for the top seeds, so Riot will have to play and win four games to win the title. With no upsets, their schedule would be the following:

• Pre-Quarters vs Austin Showdown
• Quarters vs Vancouver Traffic
• Semifinals vs San Francisco Fury
• Finals vs Boston Brute Squad

The first three match-ups are highly likely, as Traffic and Fury will be heavy favorites to advance in the bracket to meet Riot. Riot has a favorable match-up in the first two rounds, but will then have to run through Fury and Brute Squad, the only two teams that have bested Riot this season. Seattle was 2-2 against San Francisco this season, and 0-2 against Boston.

Vancouver Traffic

For the second year in a row, Traffic enters Nationals as the #5 seed, which means they have the best chance [on paper] to challenge a team for the first place position in pool play. This year, that team is Denver’s Molly Brown, who have made several key additions to their roster that have made them semi-finals favorites since the season began. Vancouver and Denver have not played each other this year, so the first match-up will be an important one, with the winner likely taking first in the pool and finding the easier schedule at the start of bracket play.

Traffic met Québec’s Iris in the Canadian Ultimate Championship finals, winning by a slim 15-13 margin. See the full scorecard for the game here.

Traffic also hasn’t played Chicago’s Nemesis. Nemesis is the lowest seed of the tournament, and the only team not ranked in the top 16 teams to end the season [earned a bid to Nationals after the Great Lakes region automatically received a bid].

Bracket possibilities: assuming no upsets, Traffic would take second in the pool, and go on to face Madison’s Heist in pre-quarters. Traffic won the only game between the two teams 15-11, but Heist has been building towards Nationals, not losing a game in their last two tournaments [Chicago Heavyweights, North Central Women’s Regionals]. This could be a sneaky choice for an upset.

If Traffic advances, they would run into Riot, who they have played really close games with this season, but have yet to beat them. If they win, they would likely advance to the same schedule Riot would have faced above. If not, they would enter the 5th place bracket with a chance to hold seed for the tournament, and secure Pro-Flight status.

Portland Schwa

Schwa finds themselves three places higher than their end-of-season rankings [#13 -> #10], and a three seed in their pool. Portland found little success against first seed Riot, and lost their only game of the season to second seed Scandal 8 – 13. Finally, against fourth seed Phoenix, Schwa split two games, winning 13 – 10 at the U.S. Open, and losing 10 – 11 at the Colorado Cup.

With a point differential of just +2, it’s hard to call Schwa a favorite against Phoenix. In trying to find other comparisons in their schedules/results, we find:

• Losses to non-Nationals qualifying teams — Schwa: 1; Phoenix: 1
• Wins against higher ranked teams at Nationals — Schwa: 1; Phoenix: 5
• Average point differential against top 4 teams — Schwa: -5.8 [5 games] ; Phoenix: -7.0 [4 games]

Honestly, there is barely anything separating these two teams on paper. Schwa might be ranked a little higher than they should be, Phoenix a little lower. This should be a very tight game, and Schwa will need to win it to take third in the pool and have a chance to move-on to the quarterfinals, which the team hasn’t done since 2004.

Bracket possibilities: assuming no upsets, Schwa would move on to face Atlanta Ozone, who bested them 14-10 in their only match-up this season. If Schwa could sneak out a win, they would run into Boston’s Brute Squad, and likely get knocked into the 5th place bracket.

If they can’t advance past quarterfinals, Schwa would still be eligible for Pro-Flight status through the 7th-place/play-in bracket. One loss in that bracket pushes them down to the 11th place bracket, and so-on. By qualifying for Nationals, Schwa is guaranteed Elite-Flight status, which they also achieved last year, meaning they would compete in the Triple-Crown Tour in 2016.

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The Northwest Women’s teams look to has a Championship contender in Seattle Riot, a semi-final contender in Vancouver Traffic, and a third Pro-Flight contender in Portland Schwa. This is the only Region with two teams in the top 5, and three teams in the top 10. Regardless of the finish, these teams have proven that the Northwest is likely the best women’s region in the nation.

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Edits: Schwa has made quarterfinals, most recently in 2004; Traffic and Iris have played once, in the CUC finals.

Something Special

In 2011, an Oregon kid with a dream started a nation-wide tour of ultimate games featuring the best young male players in the country playing against the best open club teams in the country. Four years later, it’s safe to say that the project was a massive success, and was remarkably important for the growth of ultimate as a sport.

The NexGen tour brought high-quality streaming and videos that were much better than anything previous.; it brought a refreshing, exciting event to bring non-playing friends and family to; it introduced club teams and world-class college players to the masses. Personally, it was one of the biggest contributing factors to my quick dive into being a fan by having a ton of high quality footage to enjoy and analyze. The tour was important, and accomplished many great things.

The All-Star Ultimate Tour is even more important.